Matchup Probabilities

Matchup Probabilities:
'Matchup Probabilities' is a very useful basketball  (external link) method for determining how often Team A, with a winning percentage of X, will beat Team B, with a winning percentage of Y. It can be modified to account for other factors, such as home court advantage, etc.

This method applies explicitly to teams, but there is no obvious reason that it cannot be applied to individuals once winning percentages have been evaluated for them. ( Read more > Comments )

Spanish ~ Español - probabilidades de apareamiento


021010 ~ MatchUp Probabilities for Teams

When all we have are the overall records and no information about court advantage, etc. we apply the following formula:

Win%A_B = { Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) } / { Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) + ( 1-Win%A ) * Win%B }

where Win%A_B is the chance that A will beat B, Win%A is A's winning percentage against the league, and Win%B is B's winning percentage against the league.

When we can access to the home court team percentages, we apply:

Win%A_B = { Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) * Win%H } / { Win%A * ( 1-Win%B ) * Win%H + ( 1-Win%A ) * Win%B *
( 1-Win%H ) }

where Win%H is the percentage of times the home teams wins.
Louis C. Sierra

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